{"id":46409,"date":"2024-08-30T08:31:01","date_gmt":"2024-08-30T14:31:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bbmnoticias.com\/labravaradiofm\/?p=46409"},"modified":"2024-08-30T08:31:03","modified_gmt":"2024-08-30T14:31:03","slug":"temen-impacto-de-menor-pib-en-las-finanzas-publicas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bbmnoticias.com\/labravaradiofm\/2024\/08\/30\/temen-impacto-de-menor-pib-en-las-finanzas-publicas\/","title":{"rendered":"Temen impacto de menor PIB en las finanzas p\u00fablicas"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Los ajustes a la baja en las proyecciones de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico<\/strong> en M\u00e9xico pintan un panorama de mayor deterioro <\/strong>para las finanzas p\u00fablicas<\/strong> al cierre de este a\u00f1o y para 2025, con un aumento en la raz\u00f3n deuda\/PIB<\/strong>, e incluso, si las cosas se ponen peor, habr\u00eda el riesgo de que el pa\u00eds pierda el grado de inversi\u00f3n<\/strong>, advirtieron analistas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luis Adri\u00e1n Mu\u00f1iz, subdirector de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico de Vector Casa de Bolsa, <\/strong>recalc\u00f3 que \u201cel balance de riesgos<\/strong> a la baja en el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico<\/strong> es algo que presiona de manera significativa las finanzas p\u00fablicas<\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En entrevista, expuso que si se recorta la proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento<\/strong>del 3 al 1.5 por ciento del PIB para el presente a\u00f1o, habr\u00e1 un faltante autom\u00e1ticamente en ingresos fiscales <\/strong>de 73 mil millones de pesos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Soldevilla, director de Ecobi, <\/strong>estim\u00f3 que con un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico<\/strong>de solo 1.5 por ciento este a\u00f1o, la deuda p\u00fablica crecer\u00eda a 52.3 por ciento del PIB. A inicios de a\u00f1o, el economista<\/strong> proyectaba un aumento del PIB de 2.4 por ciento y la deuda en casi 50 por ciento del tama\u00f1o de la econom\u00eda<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proyect\u00f3 que con un avance del PIB de 1.2 por ciento en 2025, la deuda<\/strong> se elevar\u00eda a 54.4 por ciento del PIB. \u201cSi el PIB<\/strong> crece menos, genera un alza del d\u00e9ficit fiscal<\/strong>, a no ser que el gasto<\/strong> se reduzca o crezca la recaudaci\u00f3n<\/strong>\u201d, enfatiz\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En tanto, Gabriela Siller, directora de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico de Banco Base, <\/strong>actualiz\u00f3 su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento<\/strong> del pa\u00eds a 1.3 por ciento este a\u00f1o y 0.8 por ciento el siguiente. Pero en un escenario pesimista <\/strong>el PIB<\/strong> solo avanzar\u00e1 0.9 por ciento este a\u00f1o y caer\u00eda 0.2 por ciento el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLa raz\u00f3n de deuda sobre PIB<\/strong> s\u00ed puede subir a 51 o 52 por ciento, asumiendo que en el 2025 recorten el d\u00e9ficit fiscal presupuestario<\/strong> a 3.9 por ciento del PIB y una recesi\u00f3n<\/strong> donde el PIB cae 0.2 por ciento\u201d, recalc\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPara 2026 habr\u00e1 que ver tambi\u00e9n cu\u00e1l es el impacto de la reforma al Poder Judicial<\/strong>, porque podr\u00edamos ver un largo estancamiento econ\u00f3mico<\/strong>, es decir, despu\u00e9s de una ca\u00edda en el PIB<\/strong>, una recuperaci\u00f3n<\/strong>, pero con un crecimiento pr\u00e1cticamente nulo\u201d, calcul\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agreg\u00f3 que en este escenario, la raz\u00f3n de deuda sobre PIB <\/strong>seguir\u00eda creciendo alcanzando niveles cercanos al 54 o 55 por ciento en tres a\u00f1os, lo quellevar\u00eda a la p\u00e9rdida del grado de inversi\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico<\/strong>; \u201cno nada m\u00e1s habr\u00eda recorte en la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia, sino la p\u00e9rdida del grado de inversi\u00f3n<\/strong>\u201d, advirti\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sensibilidad de ingresos<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Mu\u00f1iz explic\u00f3 que la cifra estimada del faltante de ingresos<\/strong> se obtiene con base en los c\u00e1lculos de la sensibilidad de ingresos, establecida en los Criterios Generales de Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica para 2024<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El informe establece que por cada medio punto de menor crecimiento del PIB<\/strong> hay un faltante de ingresos fiscales <\/strong>por 24.4 mil millones de pesos, entonces si la econom\u00eda crece un punto y medio menos, la merma de ingresos se triplica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTodas las m\u00e9tricas de finanzas p\u00fablicas<\/strong> para este a\u00f1o est\u00e1n hechas con una estimaci\u00f3n de crecimiento del PIB m\u00e1s alto, de 3 por ciento, pero si se crece menos, esto ocasionar\u00e1 un menor ingreso tributario<\/strong> para 2024 y ceteris paribus, habr\u00e1 un faltante en las finanzas p\u00fablicas <\/strong>de 73 mil millones de pesos\u201d, detall\u00f3 el economista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider\u00f3 que el problema es que la perspectiva para el crecimiento del PIB<\/strong> de 2025 est\u00e1 igual de d\u00e9bil, y todo parece indicar que la<\/strong> econom\u00eda mexicana<\/strong> se seguir\u00e1 desacelerando el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o; entonces el reto de bajar el d\u00e9ficit <\/strong>de 6 por ciento del PIB en el presente a\u00f1o a 4 o 4.5 para 2025 se observa m\u00e1s complicado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asinti\u00f3 que Hacienda<\/strong> hab\u00eda proyectado un d\u00e9ficit fiscal de tres por ciento del PIB<\/strong> para 2025 y Sheinbaum dijo que de 3.5 por ciento del PIB<\/strong>, pero se\u00f1al\u00f3 que bajar el d\u00e9ficit <\/strong>de seis por ciento a dichos niveles implica un golpe muy grande para la demanda interna<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ah\u00ed la pregunta es si se podr\u00edan elevar los ingresos p\u00fablicos<\/strong> por mayor eficiencia recaudatoria, para lograr la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para 2025 todav\u00eda se desconocen muchas variables, \u201cpero sea cual sea el escenario, se requiere que los RFSP no sean mayores de 5.9 por ciento del PIB, para que el crecimiento de la deuda p\u00fablica<\/strong> no se desancle y no se ponga en riesgo la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia<\/strong>\u201d, recalc\u00f3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los ajustes a la baja en las proyecciones de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico en M\u00e9xico pintan un panorama de mayor deterioro para las finanzas p\u00fablicas al cierre de este a\u00f1o y para 2025, con un aumento en la raz\u00f3n deuda\/PIB, e incluso, si las cosas se ponen peor, habr\u00eda el riesgo de que el pa\u00eds pierda el […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":46410,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1025,19],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-46409","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-destacado","8":"category-nacional"},"yoast_head":"\nTemen impacto de menor PIB en las finanzas p\u00fablicas - LA BRAVA RADIO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbmnoticias.com\/labravaradiofm\/2024\/08\/30\/temen-impacto-de-menor-pib-en-las-finanzas-publicas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Temen impacto de menor PIB en las finanzas p\u00fablicas - 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